September Revenues Offer Few Reasons for Optimism

State revenues in September fell below expectations, with business tax receipts, which make up more than a third of New Hampshire’s core revenue, continuing to underperform. Overall, the first quarter of the fiscal year ended $17.2 million (3%) below plan. While lottery revenues showed some strength, the broader outlook indicates sluggish growth and potential challenges ahead for the state budget.

Shifting Sources: A Brief Look at Long-Term State Revenue Trends in New Hampshire

State Fiscal Year 2025 revenues dropped 9.4 percent in the General Fund and Education Trust Fund compared to last year after adjusting for inflation. Revenues that surged after the pandemic, fueled by corporate profits and real estate sales, have since declined, underscoring New Hampshire’s reliance on a few volatile sources and the impact of tax policy changes like business tax reductions and the repeal of the Interest and Dividends Tax.

State Revenues Behind Early Forecasts in Summer Data

State revenues in New Hampshire began the new fiscal year below expectations, with July and August collections falling short of both targets and last year’s levels, largely due to weakening business tax receipts. While early months are not usually decisive, the shortfalls across several major sources raise concerns about whether revenues will meet the new State Budget’s projections.

New Federal Reconciliation Law Reduces Taxes, Health Access, and Food Assistance Supports for Granite Staters

A new federal reconciliation law signed on July 4 will bring sweeping changes to tax and social support programs, with major implications for Granite Staters. According to NHFPI's analysis, the law makes permanent many tax cuts from 2017, and pays for some of the forgone revenue by reducing access to Medicaid, supports for food assistance, and clean energy investments, shifting costs and risks onto low- and moderate-income households.

The State Lottery Has Grown, Becoming More Important for Public Education

Reliance on lottery funds, a relatively volatile revenue source, to support K-12 education in the state can create some uncertainty for budgeting. While additional equity concerns warrant more conversations about the strengths and weakness of this increasing source of state revenue.

What We’re Reading — the July 2025 Edition

On the last Friday of each month, the New Hampshire Fiscal Policy Institute’s research team shares a curated list of books, research papers, podcasts, and more that are helping to ...