First published in NH Bulletin, September 4, 2024; also republished by Yahoo!

New Hampshire’s population size and shifting demographics have undergone several key trends during the past decade. Although the state’s population has continued to grow and diversify, more than 210,000 residents will be reaching traditional retirement age in the coming decade.

Changes in New Hampshire’s population provide valuable insights into how the economy may evolve, as well as highlight the potential benefits of future investments to support a thriving workforce.

Based on U.S. Census Bureau data, New Hampshire’s population has grown by about 6.5 percent since 2010, reaching approximately 1.4 million residents as of July 2023. While the population increased each year throughout this period, growth slowed from 2022 to 2023 compared to most years since 2010.

Statewide growth has continued since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, but population changes have varied by county.

As of 2023, Hillsborough County remained the largest county by population. However, Carroll County experienced the fastest rate of population growth since 2020. Coös County, the state’s northernmost county, remained the smallest by population size and experienced the lowest growth during this time.

Migration into New Hampshire has been a significant driver of population change across the state since 2010, with in-migration contributing to the entirety of population growth from 2020 to 2023. Domestic migration contributed about 79.2 percent of this net gain, while international migration comprised the rest, and deaths among state residents outnumbered births.

While migration from Massachusetts, the largest source of new residents moving to New Hampshire, increased during the pandemic, New Hampshire continued to lose residents to Maine. A larger number left for Maine in 2021 and 2022 compared to the two years before the pandemic, and outnumbered the number of people moving in the other direction.

New Hampshire has become increasingly more diverse over the last three decades, and this trend continued during the pandemic.

Those identifying as white and non-Hispanic comprised about 88.5 percent of the state’s population in 2023. However, the number identifying with a racial or ethnic minority group in New Hampshire has increased at a faster rate since 2020, at about 9.7 percent compared to 0.8 percent for non-Hispanic white residents.

While the state has become more diverse, the population is continuing to age.

As of 2023, the median age in New Hampshire was 43.4 years old, making it tied with Vermont as the second oldest state, behind only Maine. Approximately 20.8 percent of the 2023 population was aged 65 or older, while about 15.3 percent was between the ages of 55 and 64. Moreover, the number of children under 18 in the state has continued to decline.

Migration has influenced demographic changes, with younger adults making up a significant portion of those moving to the state. From 2018 to 2022, about 60.5 percent of those migrating into the state were between the ages of 18 and 44.

The state’s aging population has several implications for the Granite State workforce.

As of April 2024, about 30 percent of New Hampshire’s workers were over the age of 55 years, with approximately 21 percent in the 55- to 64-year-old age group. The state’s working-age population, or those between the ages of 18 to 64, declined between 2020 and 2023 and is projected to continue declining.

The shift in the state’s demographics will impact the younger Granite State workforce who may have to reduce their working hours or leave work temporarily to care for older family members. From June 2023 to June 2024, an average of 4,606 people were not in the state’s labor force each month because they were caring for an older adult.

Although more older adults will be leaving the workforce, more have delayed retirement across the country. National projections indicate that the number of older adults aged 75 or older in the workforce will grow by about 77 percent by 2032. Prolonging retirement, especially among older adults who work physically strenuous jobs, may lead to a greater risk of health conditions and early mortality. Because older adults are more likely to experience a disability, an aging population may also increase the demand for health care services and place pressure on an already strained health care workforce.

Younger people moving to the state has the potential to help offset the aging population’s impact on the workforce. However, key factors may limit the potential for labor force growth through migration.

People seeking to move into the state may experience difficulty securing housing due to high demand, high costs, and relatively low availability. Additionally, barriers to accessing child care may prevent current residents with children from entering the state’s workforce, especially as more parents may also be caring for an older relative. As the state continues to grow and change, investments in the state’s child care and housing infrastructure, health care, and workforce development will be crucial for helping to accommodate these population shifts.

Learn more in the New Hampshire Fiscal Policy Institute’s most recent Issue Brief, New Hampshire’s Growing Population and Changing Demographics Before and Since the COVID-19 Pandemic.

Jessica Williams is a policy analyst at the New Hampshire Fiscal Policy Institute, a nonprofit, independent policy research organization based in Concord and focused on the state budget, New Hampshire’s economy, and policies affecting Granite Staters, particularly those with low and moderate incomes. Learn more at nhfpi.org.