Home » Common Cents » Currently Reading:

Senate Ways and Means Committee Increases Revenue Estimates

May 22, 2017 Common Cents

In an unusual move, the Senate Ways and Means Committee opted to revisit the revenue estimates for the General and Education Trust Funds they had decided and voted upon individually on May 17. The Committee concurred with the House Ways and Means Committee revenue projections for the Fish and Game Fund, and adopted the projections from the Governor’s proposed budget for the Highway Fund. The Committee then reopened the General and Education Trust Fund revenue estimates, and after a series of recesses, decided to increase projected revenues for the Business Profits and Business Enterprise Taxes, the Interest and Dividends Tax, and the Real Estate Transfer Tax for the upcoming State Budget biennium. (For more on the General, Education Trust, Highway, and Fish and Game Funds, see NHFPI’s Building the Budget resource.)

The revenue projections that were adjusted since the May 17 votes are shaded in the table below. The total revenue for the biennium, at $4,951.4 million, is $19.7 million below the Governor’s estimate, and above the House Ways and Means Committee estimate from March by $39.1 million. The $53.2 million increase in projected in revenue from the May 17 estimates stemmed from a $36.0 million increase in expected revenue from business taxes, an $11.8 million increase in expected Real Estate Transfer Tax revenue, and a $5.4 million increase in Interest and Dividends Tax revenue. Adjustments to the State fiscal year 2017 estimates were also boosted by increases in projected revenue from the two business taxes and the Real Estate Transfer Tax.

The differences across these revenue estimates indicate the extent to which projections can change for a two-year budget. The economic uncertainty is compounded by changes in the groups making the projections. Throughout the process of creating a budget, there are at least five different sets of revenue estimates, potentially made by five different groups of people. Revenue estimates are likely to change over these iterations due to updated revenue collection data and other factors. (For more on the different iterations of revenue estimates, see NHFPI’s Building the Budget resource.)

Senate Ways and Means Committee May 22 Revenue Estimates with Increases Highlighted

 

Senate Ways and Means Committee Increases Revenue Estimates (PDF)

Connect with NHFPI

Common Cents Blog

Unsettled Business Tax Revenues Push Surplus Upward, Offer Limited Insight for the Future

7 Dec 2018

tree with coins

The fortunes of State revenues continue to rise and fall with New Hampshire’s two primary business taxes, which provided positive signs for near-term revenue but have not shown these levels are sustainable. While the two business taxes remained healthy, other revenue sources were relatively flat overall, leaving the State with a revenue surplus entirely dependent on the two business taxes. The lack of growth in other revenue sources combined with the uncertainty around business taxes creates an environment in which it will be very difficult to accurately project revenues for the new State Budget biennium.