(view a static version of this interactive here)
New Hampshire’s workforce is expected to grow by 5.8 percent between 2022 and 2032, from an estimated 719,305 employees to a projected 761,332 employees. While there will be about 4,203 annual openings across the state, projections from New Hampshire Employment Security forecast that approximately 80,170 employees (11.1 percent) will exit or transfer out of their occupations each year. Annual turnover includes both professionals who transfer to other occupations and those who exit the labor force entirely, such as those who leave to further their education, start a family, or retire. The health care and social assistance industry is expected to experience the largest growth, in terms of the total number of jobs, between 2022 and 2032 relative to all other industries.
Among all health-related occupations, health care support occupations will experience the largest number of exits and transfers in the coming years. From 2022 to 2032, about 3,814 professionals per year, which equates to approximately 15.1 percent of the total number of support professionals employed in 2022, are estimated to exit or transfer out of their positions. Low wages and few, or no, benefits, irregular hours of work, and labor-intensive environments may contribute to higher levels of exits and turnovers.
Turnover is projected to be especially high among home health and personal care aides, with 1,434 professionals (equivalent to 16.4 percent of total 2022 employment) estimated to exit or transfer annually. In addition to high turnover, State projections estimate 202 new home health and personal care aide positions will need to be filled each year. Higher rates of occupational growth compared to other support professions may be due to the increased need for at-home care as more of New Hampshire’s population reaches ages in which medical challenges are more likely. Workforce shortages among home health and personal care aids also have implications for the state’s Choices for Independence Medicaid program, which provides home- and community-based care for individuals who are chronically ill or have a disability and are seeking an alternative to nursing home care.
Community and social service occupations are also estimated to experience high numbers of turnover from 2022 to 2032, with 1,111 professionals (equivalent to 9.0 percent of total 2022 employment) expected to exit or transfer from the field annually. Social and human service assistants may face similar professional obstacles to other health care support occupations, potentially including relatively low pay or irregular hours, which may contribute to the relatively high projected annual turnover rate of 10.8 percent relative to 2022 employment levels. Substance abuse, behavioral disorder, and mental health counselors are also projected to have a high transfer and exit rate of 9.2 percent of 2022 employment annually. However, across the ten year period, the growth rate of 24.2 percent among these counselors is expected to outpace the occupation’s annual transfer and exit rate, with around 56 new openings per year.
While that occupation category of healthcare practitioners and technical occupations are expected to experience a relatively low exit and transfer rate of 5.7 percent compared to other health care occupations, many of these professions require Doctoral or Master’s degrees in order to practice. These occupations also have larger numbers of employed professionals compared to other professions. Registered nurses comprise the largest health care occupational group in New Hampshire, with an estimated employment of 13,685 in 2022. Although only about 5.6 percent of the total 2022 employment levels are expected to exit or transfer out of the occupation annually, this rate equates to an average of 761 annually nurses due to the large size of the profession.
Nurse practitioners and physician assistants are expected to experience the largest percentage growth in the number of new openings across the ten year period among all health care occupations, at 50.7 percent and 30.4 percent, respectively. Physician shortages within the primary care sector is likely a contributing factor for this predicted growth from 2022 to 2032, as other employees may fill some of the duties previously performed by physicians in health care settings.
Update: The interactive and text were updated on June 17, 2024 to clarify that the number of new openings and growth in the number of positions are presented over a ten-year period, while the exits and transfers are presented annually.
