CONCORD, N.H. – A new analysis from the New Hampshire Fiscal Policy Institute finds that the recently passed federal reconciliation law will have major impacts in New Hampshire, including reducing access to health care and food assistance and shifting significant costs to the state government. The law, which makes most of the 2017 federal tax cuts permanent and imposes new conditions on assistance programs, is expected to benefit New Hampshire households with higher incomes while reducing services for residents with lower incomes.
The NHFPI analysis examines how the 2025 reconciliation law, also known as the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, will affect New Hampshire families, health care access, and state finances. Drawing on national data from the U.S. Congressional Budget Office, Georgetown University, the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy, the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, KFF, and other organizations, as well as state-level data on Medicaid enrollment and revenues, the analysis details how federal changes will reverberate through state policy and household budgets.
Key findings from NHFPI’s analysis of what the federal reconciliation law means for Granite Staters:
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Top earners benefit most: Two-thirds of the federal tax cuts for Granite Staters will go to the top 20% of households by income.
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$2.3 billion in lost Medicaid funding: Federal Medicaid spending in NH is projected to be $2.3 billion lower over the next decade.
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Disenrollment from Medicaid: An estimated 20,000 Granite Staters could lose Medicaid coverage due to new federal work requirements, largely as a result of administrative barriers.
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Major funding gap risk for Medicaid: New federal limits on the taxes states can charge health care providers will reduce a key source of funding for Medicaid. If those limits had already been in place in 2024, New Hampshire would have lost more than $133 million in provider tax revenue and matching federal funds.
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SNAP changes costlier for NH: New work requirements and administrative burdens could threaten food assistance for 4,000 Granite Staters and require NH to shoulder a larger share of program costs.
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Clean energy tax credits ending: More than 19,000 Granite Staters used the federal residential clean energy tax credit in 2022, but that credit and others are now being phased out more quickly under the new law, reducing support for home energy efficiency, renewable energy upgrades, and electric vehicle access.
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New student loan limits: Caps on graduate and professional student loans, along with new income-based repayment rules, may make it harder for New Hampshire students to afford tuition.
“These changes will unfold in the next several years and could shift over time, but the consequences for New Hampshire are clear: more costs shifted to the state, fewer resources for those with the greatest need, and difficult decisions ahead for policymakers,” said Phil Sletten, the lead author of the analysis.
The analysis warns that while some changes are phased in over time, their cumulative effect will burden state budgets and reduce federal funding for critical public services in New Hampshire.
“While state policymakers will have some ability to shape implementation, the broader effects of this federal law are clear and unavoidable. The federal law will fundamentally shift resources away from households with lower incomes while putting added pressure on state budgets,” said Sletten.
To read the full analysis, New Federal Reconciliation Law Reduces Taxes, Health Access, and Food Assistance Supports for Granite Staters, visit https://nhfpi.org/resource/new-federal-reconciliation-law-reduces-taxes-health-access-and-food-assistance-supports-for-granite-staters/.
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