First published in New Hampshire Bulletin, November 18, 2024
For the Granite State to thrive now and in the future, the data on families raises concerns.
We are a state where deaths outnumbered births in all but one county between 2020 and 2023, where 30 percent of the workforce was age 55 or older in 2023, and where the median age of 43.4 years old made us the second oldest state population in the U.S. in 2023, tied with Vermont and behind only Maine.
Population growth and an age-diverse workforce help ensure a robust and healthy economy that benefits state residents. Given our declining population, more out-of-state residents will need to move to New Hampshire for the state to experience growth. However, relocating to or remaining in the Granite State may be financially impossible for young individuals and families due to our high cost of living, including record-breaking single-family house prices and high child care costs.
To fully understand the financial constraints that young families may face in New Hampshire, consider an example of a family with two working parents and two young children who would like to purchase a home in the Granite State. To put the following costs into context for New Hampshire’s families with moderate incomes, the median weekly income for 40 hours of work each week in 2023 for Granite State construction workers, school bus drivers, and firefighters was approximately $870, $921, and $990, respectively.
To put down roots in our state, families need to have access to affordable, safe housing; however, housing costs in New Hampshire are at all-time highs, particularly single-family houses. The median cost of a single-family house in the Granite State in October 2024 was $500,750, a 4.6 percent increase from October 2023, according to the New Hampshire Association of Realtors.
If a family wanted to purchase a home in October with a 5 percent down payment ($25,038), it would have needed to save approximately $69 per day (about $482 per week) for a year – the equivalent of nearly 14 $5 coffees every day. Using the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate from October (6.428 percent) and average combined New Hampshire state and local 2024 property tax rate across all municipalities ($18.81 per $1,000), a monthly mortgage payment for the median-priced house would be approximately $3,769 per month, or about $870 per week.
This calculation does not include homeowners insurance, private mortgage insurance, or closing costs, and assumes a financial institution would lend to the family given their salaries and wages.
For both parents to be employed, this hypothetical family will also require child care, which averaged nearly $32,000 annually ($615 per week) in 2023 for two children under 5 in center-based care in New Hampshire. According to the 2024 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Living Wage Calculator’s New Hampshire statewide estimates, the hypothetical family in this example may also have the following weekly expenses for two adults and two children: food ($256), medical ($196), transportation ($353), civic engagement including education, children’s extracurricular activities, fees and admission to local attractions, pets, and toys ($149), internet and mobile services ($44), and other necessities, including clothing, cleaning supplies, and personal care items ($223).
When these expenses are combined, the family in this example would need to spend an estimated $2,710 each week, or about $140,900 annually, to live in the Granite State. This estimate does not include saving for emergencies, retirement, or other potential short- or long-term expenses, nor does it adjust for local cost-of-living differences within the state.
The high cost of living in New Hampshire, particularly if a family needs to simultaneously pay for child care and a newly purchased home, may prevent the most in-demand workers from moving to, or staying in, our state.
According to New Hampshire Employment Security, the state is projected to have the highest average annual openings between 2022 and 2032 in the following 10 occupations: fast food and counter workers (3,312), cashiers (3,211), retail sales persons (2,822), stockers and order fillers (2,588), office clerks (1,854), waiters and waitresses (1,810), customer service representatives (1,741), home health and personal care aides (1,636), general and operations managers (1,537), and janitors and cleaners (1,406). With the exception of general and operations managers, median annual wages in 2023 for all these occupations were low relative to estimated living costs, ranging from $29,130 for fast food and counter workers to $46,240 for office clerks.
Even if individuals with these wages were in dual-income households with partners who earned similar wages, they would not earn the $140,900 annually needed for the hypothetical family described above to live in the Granite State.
Without the continued development and implementation of innovative policy solutions, our state may not be able to attract or retain individuals to fill in-demand occupations. Having a diverse and robust workforce is necessary to help ensure continued growth in our population and economy for our next generations of Granite Staters.
Nicole Heller, Ph.D, is a senior policy analyst at the New Hampshire Fiscal Policy Institute, a nonprofit, independent policy research organization based in Concord and focused on the state budget, New Hampshire’s economy, and policies affecting Granite Staters, particularly those with low and moderate incomes. Learn more at nhfpi.org.
JOIN THE NEW HAMPSHIRE FISCAL POLICY INSTITUTE on Dec. 6 to learn more about the cost of living, housing, and early care and education across the Granite State. Registration is $50 per person. See more information at nhfpi.org/conference.